![]() Decision making in health and medicine: integrating evidence and values. Mathematical model for the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and cervical carcinogenesis. Determining transition probabilities: confusion and suggestions. Principles of good practice for decision analytic modeling in health-care evaluation: report of the ISPOR Task Force on Good Research Practices. Weinstein MC, O’Brien B, Hornberger J, et al. Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment. Philips Z, Ginnelly L, Sculpher M, et al. An introduction to Markov modelling for economic evaluation. Modelling in economic evaluation: an unavoidable fact of life. Pharmacoeconomics 2000 17 (5): 461–477īuxton MJ, Drummond MF, Van Hout BA, et al. Assessing quality in decision analytic cost-effectiveness models: a suggested framework and example of application. Evidence-based and value-based formulary guidelines. How the transformed rates and probabilities may be used in economic models is then described and some recommendations are suggested. Appropriate conversions between rates and probabilities are discussed, and simple examples are provided to illustrate the techniques and pitfalls. The article begins by defining rates and probabilities and shows the essential difference between the two measures. The objective of this article is to provide a concise guide to understanding the issues surrounding the use of rates and probabilities reported in the literature in economic models, and an understanding of when and how to transform them appropriately. In spite of previous descriptions of appropriate use of rates and probabilities, confusions persist beyond a simple understanding of their definitions. One of the requirements for good practice in modelling is appropriate application of rates and probabilities. Economic modelling is increasingly being used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of health technologies.
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